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Climate Change Project on Forest Ecosystems

Page history last edited by Dr Mostafa Jafari 3 years, 9 months ago

 

Climate Change Impacts in Iran:

http://en.climate-change.ir/Climate-Change-Impacts-in-Iran_2240.html

 

Based on the research and assessment carried out during the Climate Change Enabling Activity Project under UNFCCC, and using the scenarios proposed by IPCC, it is estimated that if the CO2 concentration doubles by the year 2100, the average temperature in Iran will increases by 1.5 - 4.5ºC which will cause significant changes in water resources, energy demand, agricultural products, and coastal zones.
The “direct” adverse impacts of climate change include changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, water resources, sea level rise and coastal zone, agriculture and food production, forestry, drought frequency and intensity, and human health. The “indirect” adverse economic impacts result from the response measures taken by the developed countries.

 

Climate change facts and statistics in Iran:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303522091_Climate_change_facts_and_statistics_in_Iran

Technical Report · May 2016, Report of the environmental challenges of I. R. Iran to UNEA-2 delivering on the 2030 Agenda in Nairobi 2016, Affiliation: Research Institute of Shakhes Pajouh, Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar

 

 

Abstract

Iran as a main country of the Middle East is under intensive climate change impacts. In vice versa, high-level contribution of Iran to GHGs emissions depends on a major product of oil, largest reserves of gas and rapid urbanization. In this manuscript, the statistical evidences on climate change were investigated in global, regional and national scales. For this purpose, the main increasing of annual temperature and GHGs emissions were considered. Then the governmental agreements toward the many international adoptions and conventions on climate change were reviewed from Rio 1992 to NY 2016. It seems that the further technological research and development on exploration the novel methods in renewable energy applications and mitigation of GHGs emissions will be necessary in order to future adaptations.


Climate change facts and statistics in Iran (PDF Download Available). Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303522091_Climate_change_facts_and_statistics_in_Iran [accessed Apr 20 2018].

 

Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology 4th Edition,

2018- USA:

 

Methodology of Climate Change Impacts Assessment:

Chapter 272

Methodology of Climate Change Impact Assessment on Forests

 

Mostafa Jafari

 

Climate change is one of the main challenging issues in various countries (Jafari, 2013b) in current century. Climate change and climate variability and Global Warming and its’ effects on natural resources, plants, animal and in general on human life are among subjects that received attention of scientists and politicians in recent years. Climate change challenges need to be considered in various dimensions (Jafari, 2013c). To both understand the present climate and to predict future climate change, it is necessary to have both theory and empirical observation. Any study of climate change involves the construction (or reconstruction) of time series of climate data. How these climate data vary across time provides a measure (either quantitative or qualitative) of climate change. Types of climate data include temperature, precipitation (rainfall), wind, humidity, evapotranspiration, pressure and solar irradiance (aric, 2008).

 

Source: Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology, Fourth Edition (10 Volumes)

http://www.igi-global.com/book/encyclopedia-information-science-technology-fourth/173015

Projected Release Date: July, 2017, Copyright: © 2018, Pages: 7500

ISBN13: 9781522522553, ISBN10: 1522522557, EISBN13: 9781522522560, DOI: 10.4018/978-1-5225-2255-3

IGI- IRMA-USA

 

 

Climate Change Diving Forces:

Chapter 680

Climate change as a driving force on urban energy consumption patterns

 

Mostafa Jafari and Pete Smith

 

Heating Degree Days (HDD), in cases where temperatures are below 18oC, and Cooling Degree Days (CDD), in cases where temperatures are above 21oC, were used as energy consumption indices. During the last half century, mean annual temperatures have increased and as a consequence, CDD in the warm season have increased sharply. In the same time slice, HDD, even in the cool and cold season have declined steadily. The number of monthly and annual total HDD (mean= 1556) are much higher than CDD (mean=400) in the case study area and annual total HDD and CDD have a negative correlation (Pearson correlation = - 0.493; p<0.001). The deceasing rate of HDD is limited and steady (R2= 0.062, p=0.099), but the increasing rate of CDD in the same time slice is sharp (R2=0.427, p=0.813). This shows that energy consumption patterns have increased sharply, and with available projection scenarios, is projected to increase more rapidly, leading to higher energy costs.

 

Source: Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology, Fourth Edition (10 Volumes)

http://www.igi-global.com/book/encyclopedia-information-science-technology-fourth/173015

Projected Release Date: July, 2017, Copyright: © 2018, Pages: 7500

ISBN13: 9781522522553, ISBN10: 1522522557, EISBN13: 9781522522560, DOI: 10.4018/978-1-5225-2255-3

IGI- IRMA-USA

 

Dendrochronology and Climate Change

Author: Mostafa Jafari

Copyright: 2015

Pages: 14

Dendrochronology and Climate Change

Source title: Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology, Third Edition

DOI: 10.4018/978-1-4666-5888-2.ch285

IGI, USA, IRMA

 

Energy consumption impacted by climate change application: Case study, Astara

Author: Mostafa Jafari

Pages: 29-50

Chapter

Power, Control and Optimization

Volume 239 of the series Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering pp 29-50

Date: 21 April 2013

http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-00206-4_2

Power, Control and Optimization

http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-319-00206-4

http://www.springer.com/cda/content/document/cda_downloaddocument/9783319002057-c2.pdf?SGWID=0-0-45-1391711-p175009347

 

 

New Book 2012:

Mostafa Jafari Biography:

http://www.igi-global.com/affiliate/mostafa-jafari/213407

 

Technology Engineering and Management in Aviation:
Advancements and Discoveries
Editors:

Evon Abu-Taieh (Arab International University, Republic of Syria),

Asim El Sheikh (Arab Academy for Banking and Financial Sciences, UAE) and

Mostafa Jafari (Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Iran)

 

 

Information of the book could be downloaded through following link:

Books IGI 2012.pdf

 

Aviation Industry and Environment Crisis: A Perspective of Impacts on the Human, Urban and Natural Environments
Mostafa Jafari (Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO), Iran)
Copyright © 2012. 19 pages.

 

 

Information on Chapter one of the book could be downloaded through following link:

Book IGI Chapters 1.pdf

 

Table of contents of the book and order forms:

 

Table of contents of the book and order forms could be downloaded from following link:

ToC of IGI Book and Forms.pdf  

 

New English Book On the Climate Change Impact on Iranian Ecosystems With Review  on Climate Change Study Methods, in year 2010:

 

CC+eng++book+cover+1.bmp

CC eng book cover 1.bmp  

 

The book "Climate Change Impacts on Iranian Ecosystems – With review on Climate Change Study Methods" with 332 pages (in English) was written by Dr. Mostafa Jafari in year 2010 and has published by RIFR. The author is Lead Author of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LA/IPCC) for AR4 (Chapter 10, in WGII, Asia) and also AR5 (Chapter 11, in WGIII, Agriculture Forestry and other land use) and member of scientific board of RIFR and international advisor of IRIMO. Book Publication number 421, and ISBN: 978 -946 – 473 – 313 – 0 Contact address: P. O. Box 13185-116 Tehran-Iran

Author e-mails mostafajafari@libero.it and mostafajafari@rifr-ac.ir.

 

More information, including Table of the Contents, Summary and Preface of the book is provided in separate pdf file. It can be downloaded fro

 

ToC of Climate Change Impacts on Iranian Ecosystems.pdf  

 

New Book On Climate Change and Forest, in year 2008:

 

A book entitled "Climate Change Effects on Forest Ecosystem" has been published in Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, publication number 373, in year 2008. The main text is in Farsi (Persian) and a summery is provided in English.

 

Climate Change Research Project on Forest Ecosystem in Iran:

 

An introduction to the research project on climate change entitled "Investigation on Climate Change Effects on Hyrcanian Forest Ecosystems (in Gilan, Mazandaran and Golestan Provinces - southern part of Caspian Sea) with Emphasize of Wood Dendrology Studies" is given in this page and more on climate change can be seen here:

Climate Change

and

more

CC Project Abstract

 

Introducing climate change project entitled "Investigation on Climate Change Effects on Hyrcanian Forest Ecosystems (in Gilan, Mazandaran and Golestan Provinces - southern part of Caspian Sea) with Emphasize of Wood Dendrology Studies" (In Farsi)

Climate Change Project in Farsi

 

CC Project Abstract

Summary of the Project:

 

Title of Project:

"Investigation on Climate Change Effects on Hyrcanian Forest Ecosystems (in Gilan, Mazandaran and Golestan Provinces - southern part of Caspian Sea) with Emphasize of Wood Dendrology Studies"

 

Author:

Mostafa Jafari: Scientist of RIFR and Lead Author of IPCC AR4, Research Institute of Forests and Rangeland, P.O.Box 13185-16, Tehran, I.R. Iran

E-mail: mostafajafari@rifr-ac.ir

E-mail: mostafajafari@libero.it

 

Abstract:

Importance of Global Warming and its’ effects on natural resources, plants, animal and in general on human life are among subjects that received attention of scientists and politicians in recent years. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a legal document has been signed in Rio and approved by governments. To control and reduced gas emission and keep them in certain level Kyoto Protocol was agreed. I.R. Iran was among those governments signed convention in Rio and ratified later. Acceptance and ratification of Kyoto Protocol by the Government of I.R. of Iran announced officially to the secretariat. Hence, technically and politically, this issue could be considered.

Carbon dioxide and other produced gases have involved in warming up the Earth. Scientists found this warming up resulted from increase evaporation and density of water steam in atmosphere. As a result, precipitation pattern including rain or snow will change. Other fact and projection shows, warm and dry regions, will become warmer and drier. Climate change is a phenomenon that simultaneously effects with change in temperature precipitation and carbon dioxide, so, changes in all three factors should be considered in the same time.

 

Climate change issue and study of global warming attract scientists significantly. Three reports published by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show lack of adequate research result on climate change for the

Region and it means there are not significant published research from the Near East and Central Asia, which could be used for compellation of the reports.

 

I.R. of Iran is located in the North Temperate Zone from 25 to 40 degrees latitude and 44 to 63 degrees longitude, with a total area of approximately 1,650,000 square kilometers. A 50% of total lands area is covered with high mountain ranges. Elevations range from 26 meters below sea level on the shores of the Caspian Sea to 5860 meters above sea level at the pick of the Mt. Damavand.

 

Drought or water deficiency is one of the most critical climatic factors in Iran. About 50% of Iran can be classified as arid or semi-arid zones. Climate parameters, particularly precipitation varies significantly in different parts of the country. There is not a good annual rainfall distribution in most regions of Iran, which limits the plant development and growth. Not only high temperature in southern, central and lowlands of Iran is a limiting factor, but also low temperature in northern, western and highlands is another limiting factor too.

 

Forest ecological zones in Iran could be categorized as follow:

a) North, Caspian forest,

b) West, Zagros forest,

c) North West, Arasbaran forest,

d) South, Subtropical forest in Persian Gulf areas, and

e) Central, Scattering forests.

 

The Caspian forest possesses a closed canopy of deciduous forest, unlike the arid to semi-arid landscape throughout most of Iran. These forests belong to the broadleaf deciduous biome, which is widely distributed from North America to Europe and Asia. There are close similarities in the physionomic and taxonomic aspects between Caspian forests and European and American deciduous forests. The Caspian region receives the larger part of the country’s precipitation while the central desert (Dasht-e-Lut) is faced with permanent drought.

 

Some of the main species of Caspian forest could be listed as Fagus orientalis, Carpinus betulus, Acer velutinum, Quercus castanifolia, Fraxinus excelsior.

 

According to the studies taken by Briffa et al, (2001) on annual rings, in last 600 years, 20th century was the warmest period, with an exception of Siberia that 15th century was warmer than 20th.

Various subjects of dendrology could be study in relation to the climate change. In this research with collection of wood specimens from old tees and also ancient wooden material that have been used for different purposes and investigation on their annual rings is trying to answer to the two questions:

 

1- With considering tree annual rings as outcome of effect of climate factors, past climate condition could be estimated.

2- With using meteorological data for the period that data are available and investigation on correlation of annual ring width and climatic data, climate condition of the years which data are not available could be interpreted and explained.

 

Methodology of the project could summarize as follow:

1- Project areas are in Hyrcanian forest zone in North of Iran, in southern part of Caspian Sea, on northern slop of Albourz mountain range. Hyrcanian forest is a narrow line of temperate forest with rainfall from more than 2000 mm per year in west down to about 600 mm per year in east.

First phase of the project is for a period of three years.

2- First, working site and also tree species need to be selected. Nature of tree rings and distance to meteorological stations and availability of data are important factors for these selections. The project concentrates on dendroclimatology, to study effect of climate change on forest ecosystems.

Candidate tree species mainly could be among Beech (Fagus orientalis), Hornbeam (Carpinus betulus), Maple (Acer velutinum), Oak (Quercus castaneifolia), Alder (Alnus subcordata) or in second priority among Linden (Tilia), Walnut (Juglans), Chestnut (Castanea), Poplar (Populus), or Ash (Fraxinus excelsior).

3- Then, wood specimens by coring or discs (if harvesting is in processes) will be taken.

4- Measurements of tree rings width (crossdating by skeleton plotting)

5- Tree ring proxy

6- Dendrology analysis for chronology and climate elements correlations.

 

 

According to the results which would be provided by this research project, wood and agricultural production under different climate conditions could be estimated. Also, periodical drought and warmness may be forecasted. With this knowledge, estimations and forecasts better management and programming for sustainable management would be expected.

 

Keywords: climate change, global warming, dendrology, annual rings, ecosystems.

 

 

 

National Oceanography Center Workshop report, on Paleo-Climate Change in Quaternary era in Iran:

Workshop report (in Farsi):

Workshop report

News of Workshop (in Farsi):

News

 

 

The Final Report of ICCAP research project in Turkey:

The Research Project on the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production System in Arid Areas (ICCAP).

This project finished in 2007 after 5 years of joint work between Japanese and Turkish scientists on impact of climate change on arid ecosystems. The final Report published in March 2007. ICCAP Publication no. 10, ISBN 4- 902325-09-8, Kyoto, Japan

 

IPCC and assessment report, paper presentation in ICCAP:

Abstract_for_ICCAP_Symposium

Presentation

 

Climate Change and Denderochronology In Caspian Ecosystems - Symposium, 20-21 May 2008

Symposium will be held in "Caspian Ecosystems Research Institute" University of Mazandaran, Sari, I.R. of Iran

Symposium web site

Key note lecture

 

Glossary and Terms:

Glossary of Climate Change Terms (OPEC)

 

IPCC Glossaries:

IPCC Glossaries

 

Assessment report / IPCC AR4

Fourth Assessment Report

All reports

 

Climate Change 2007 / Asia report / Chapter 10

IPCC/ AR4/ Asia Chapter

 

XII World Forestry Congress Bulletin

Report on climate change forum:

Forum Report

 

Dendrochronology and Climate Change
Author(s): Mostafa Jafari (Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization, Iran)
Copyright: 2015
Pages: 14
Source title: Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology, Third Edition
Dendrochronology and Climate Change
Author(s): Mostafa Jafari (Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization, Iran)
Copyright: 2015
Pages: 14
Source title: Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology, Third Edition

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